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south africa zar forex reports

South Africa ZAR Forex Report 19/09/17

ZAR under pressure going into the SARB interest rate decision on Thursday.

On Wednesday trade opened at 12.98 against the USD, strengthening from 13.04 in late Tuesday trade, mostly due to USD strengthening to below the psychological 1.20 against the EUR. Rumours of a cabinet reshuffle in the next couple of weeks adds to the global pressure on the Rand.

Reports of US tax cuts and inflation pressures helped the USD to strengthen late on Wednesday trade as the Rand opened slightly weaker at 13.30 on Thursday – bringing the total loss for the week to 40 cents to the USD. While the USD strengthened, it could be argued that the Rand’s weakness was slightly overdone – even though local retail sales and the Moody’s report was discouraging.

The US inflation figure came in higher than the market expected. The USD rebounded, dropping to 1.184 against the Euro as analysts increased their expectations of a rate hike. As a result, ZAR weakened and touched 13.26, but rebounded to open on Friday morning at 13.11. While there are lots of uncertainties in local politics, the main drivers in the Rand remain global – particularly the EUR/USD.

We also saw the GBP strengthen to its highest levels against the EUR since July after the Bank of England warned interest rates could soon rise for the first time in a decade. For the first time since the Brexit vote, the GBP was at 1.353 against the USD.

With little pressure, the ZAR opened the week at 13.13 against the Dollar and at 15.70 and 17.85 against EUR and GBP respectively. The Rand weakened slightly as Reuters poll showed that a majority of analysts expect a rate cut on Thursday. Adding to the pressure is a strengthening USD, meaning all emerging market currencies are on the receiving end.

A recent Bloomberg survey showed 16 of 26 political analysts think that Deputy President Ramaphosa is the next leader of the ANC. We have only to be reminded of Brexit and the US presidential race to know that these surveys can be wrong.

Have a great week, let's go to work.

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